Viktor Shenderovich: Lukashenka is Putin without nuclear bomb

The Belarusian dictator uses the same gangster tactic as his Russian counterpart, but he applies it at home rather than using it abroad.

A meeting with prominent Russian journalist and writer Viktor Shenderovich was held in Warsaw on May 18 as part of the presentation of his book titled “Russia: How to Speak about It”. The event was organised by the Polish Stefan Batory Foundation.
Ironical as usual, Viktor Shenderovich noted that “the smaller the room is, the higher the chances that you have a capacity audience”. However, it is due to the talent of Viktor Shenderovich rather than the size of the room that the conference hall of the Foundation was full.
The writer answered many questions from the audience, consisting of representatives of Polish, Belarusian and Ukrainian media and organisations as well as people who like his books.
Journalists of charter97.org prepared a transcript of Viktor Shenderovich's answers.
– Russia look one-dimensional in the eyes of Europe. It is seized with the “Crimea is ours” syndrome. This image is confirmed by opinion polls conducted by Levada Centre that show Putin enjoys high support among the Russians. Can this state be changed? Can the Russian opposition find an approach to Russian citizens?
– As Professor Preobrazhensky said: “Do not read Soviet newspapers.” The key word here is “support”. Descartes called on people to agree on the meaning of words. Europeans understand the word “support” as a percentage of population that a politician can rely on in the equal competitive struggle. This definition doesn't work in authoritarian states. What support does the North Korean leader have? If Levada Centre carried out an absolutely honest opinion poll in Pyongyang, you would see that 99-100% of people support him. But ask them if they want to wake up in South Korea, and you will get the same result of 99-100%. Support in authoritarian states is the effect of a pre-heated thermometer. It is the effect of fear and neurosis. If you are asked “Do you support Komorowski, or do you want your legs to be cut off?”, I assure you, you will say you support Komorowski. You will get the same percentage to the question “Do you support Putin's policy, or do you stand for the disintegration of Russia?” You cannot use the word “rating” for authoritarian regimes. People are supposed to receive information before the support is measured. People in democratic countries receive information on equal conditions. The first step made by authoritarian regimes is taking the media under control. Ceausescu had a 100% approval rating a week before he was shot. They all had 100% ratings, but then they were shot.
I prefer to use my own sociology. A year ago, when Putin had his famous 84%, I organised a one-man picket with the poster reading “War in Ukraine is disgrace and crime”. About 200 people passed by me. Six of them said they didn't agree, 12 said they support me. From the rest, one half passed by with no emotions, and the other half tried to hide their eyes or demonstrated a neurotic reaction in other ways. Putin's “sociology” define them as “supporters”. But the value of such support is not high: it is the “support” through indifference and neurosis. We need to distinguish the real support from the zone of fear, neurosis and miserable being.

Today's situation looks dramatic even for Putin's closest cronies. He cannot step down. He will go straight to The Hague once he quits. He has nothing to lose. He knows it, and this knowledge in combination with nuclear weapons is very dangerous. Many would like to jump off the train that is going to derail. Many officials would like the first decade of the “Putin epoch” to be returned. They would be able to rule Russia like Uzbekistan and live the European lifestyle on what they robbed. Unfortunately for them, the trap has shut,. They would like Putin to disappear but the money they robbed to remain. Please don't call it support. Otherwise we can speak about the “support” of Islam Karimov, Aliaksndr Lukashenka and Pol Pot. This is the support from hostages. For those who know history, these close to 100% ratings are a sign of the upcoming catastrophe.
How to take Russia today? How to speak about Russia? Try not to mix up the civilisation and the administration. The Russian civilisation is unthinkable without Europe. Russia became great when it became a part of Europe. In the 17th century, Russia was a territory outside the borders of the evolution. Russia's famous 19th century is the result of Russia's joining the European paradigm. It is important here not to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Let's distinguish Putin's terrible administration and the people of Russia, who are not the most educated, from the civilisation that gave the world Tolstoy, Mendeleev, Chekhov and Tchaikovsky…
– Your thesis about “Putin's sociology”, “support out of fear”, a desire of officials to jump off the train and crossing the point of no return by the dictator resembles the situation in another country governed by another man. I mean Belarus and Lukashenka.
– Technologies of the authoritarian power are quite simple and well known. Machiavelli gave an exhaustive description of them. I am not sure if Lukashenka read Machiavelli... I must admit that what Putin has done in the last year plays into the hand of Lukashenka, because before that he was considered to be the last dictator in Europe. It was his almost official title. He cheered up after the events in Donbas. He is said to ask recently, “Who is the last dictator? Am I the last?” If Lukashenka had nuclear weapons, his name would be Putin and the world would take him more seriously. Luckily, Lukashenka does not have nuclear weapons, so he flies on his “golden helicopter” from Shklou to Brest, not doing much harm to the planet. Belarus has the traditional dictatorship model. Lukashenka is just lucky that Europe and world have bigger problems than him.

 

– You mentioned the low quality of Putin's support and the concept of hostages. Nevertheless, he enjoys support. Is there a chance that civil society will appear in Russia and the facade won't just be replaced “after Putin”?
– If I knew the answer, I would gamble on stocks. Civil society cannot be exported from Mars. It is an evolutionary process. As historian Natan Eidelman said, a period of freedom in Russia lasts for 10-12 years, followed by decades of torn nostrils and severe beating. After a period of degradation, when the best was being destroyed, ahead of a new round of “freedoms”, we had decent people – economists, philosophers, historians... Elites always exist. The matter is whom people prefer to see in the elite – Professor Preobrazhensky or Sharikov [characters of Bulgakov's novel Heart of a Dog].

– Some EU politicians think there is a “thaw” now in Belarus. Minsk is a mediator at the talks over Ukraine. Belarus is invited to the Eastern Partnership summit in Riga…
– As for the so called “Belarusian thaw”, I'd like to remind you an old Jewish joke: don't confuse asthma and an orgasm. Aliaksandr Lukashenka continues to trade and does it perfectly: he takes hostages – Andrei Sannikov and others – and then releases them... This is the same gangster technology that Putin uses, but Lukashenka applies it inside Belarus. Putin crossed the border literally, while Lukashenka acts inside his country. This is an old technology: North Korean leaders have been using it for 70 years, Cuba, Venezuela and other countries use it... Do not call it a “thaw”. There were two thaws in Russian history: the first one when emperor Nicholas I died, and the second one when Joseph Stalin died. Make your conclusions when the “Belarusian thaw” will begin.

Kilde: http://charter97.org/en/news/2015/5/19/152092/