The so-called ‘Russian World’ is coming closer to
Belarus and it does not seem to be peaceful, independent and
pro-government experts warn. Yury Tsaryk, a representative of Minsk-based Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Research, and Dzyans Ivashin, chief editor of the Belarusian service of the international OSINT community InformNapalm, are the guests of Belsat TV program Two vs. Two.
Belarus and it does not seem to be peaceful, independent and
pro-government experts warn. Yury Tsaryk, a representative of Minsk-based Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Research, and Dzyans Ivashin, chief editor of the Belarusian service of the international OSINT community InformNapalm, are the guests of Belsat TV program Two vs. Two.
Will the Kremlin set off a war and invade our country
or just force Lukashenka to abandon Belarus without a single shot?
Opinions differ.
or just force Lukashenka to abandon Belarus without a single shot?
Opinions differ.
Yury Tsarik: After the events in
crimea and Donbas Belarus adopted a new defense plan and directive on
the protection of the state. Of course, they are classified, but as far
as I understand, the documents were adopted to avoid the situation that
Ukraine faced – when something happened to the supreme power and the
army did not know what to do. As far as I know, there are exact plans
provided for various scenarios, including the supreme commander [Alyaksandr Lukashenka]’s
having some misfortune <…> It was promoted to the level of
military doctrine, it is quite an interesting document <…>
[Belarusian Defense Minister] Andrey Ravkou openly said that the experience of the armed fighting in Ukraine had been taken into account during working on the doctrine.
crimea and Donbas Belarus adopted a new defense plan and directive on
the protection of the state. Of course, they are classified, but as far
as I understand, the documents were adopted to avoid the situation that
Ukraine faced – when something happened to the supreme power and the
army did not know what to do. As far as I know, there are exact plans
provided for various scenarios, including the supreme commander [Alyaksandr Lukashenka]’s
having some misfortune <…> It was promoted to the level of
military doctrine, it is quite an interesting document <…>
[Belarusian Defense Minister] Andrey Ravkou openly said that the experience of the armed fighting in Ukraine had been taken into account during working on the doctrine.
Dzyanis Ivashyn: The plan will stall
as the entire General Staff is full of agents of Russian influence due
to the fact that they were trained in Russian military universities;
there are many people of Russian origin, Russians take senior command
positions. <…> Lukashenka is a hostage to the situation he has
built for two decades.
as the entire General Staff is full of agents of Russian influence due
to the fact that they were trained in Russian military universities;
there are many people of Russian origin, Russians take senior command
positions. <…> Lukashenka is a hostage to the situation he has
built for two decades.
Host: Experts say that many patriots in the army…
Yury Tsaryk: The level of patriotism
in the Belarusian army is quite high, but I agree that there are lots
of problems as well. But considering the recent Crimean events, the
selection of personnel, particularly at the level of the General Staff,
was very careful. That is why I doubt that the plan will stall.
in the Belarusian army is quite high, but I agree that there are lots
of problems as well. But considering the recent Crimean events, the
selection of personnel, particularly at the level of the General Staff,
was very careful. That is why I doubt that the plan will stall.
I think with you that we do have a problem with
personnel, especially at the local level, it is not being solved quickly
enough. In order to avoid causing an international scandal, we should
find a proper approach to our soldiers when saying to them that they
might have to fight in a potential war with Russia. It is clear that if a
new paradigm is put clumsily, the agents will spill the beans and the
Russian side will know about it very soon.
personnel, especially at the local level, it is not being solved quickly
enough. In order to avoid causing an international scandal, we should
find a proper approach to our soldiers when saying to them that they
might have to fight in a potential war with Russia. It is clear that if a
new paradigm is put clumsily, the agents will spill the beans and the
Russian side will know about it very soon.
No matter how strong Russia’s pressure is, no matter
how aggressive its intentions are, we cannot head for a full-scale
confrontation with Russia. Therefore, we are talking about the way of
accurately and delicately building-up a system of inhibiting potential
aggression without destroying Belarus-Russia relations.
how aggressive its intentions are, we cannot head for a full-scale
confrontation with Russia. Therefore, we are talking about the way of
accurately and delicately building-up a system of inhibiting potential
aggression without destroying Belarus-Russia relations.
Host: Does it mean that Alyaksandr Lukashenka should remain in power?
Yury Tsaryk: I believe it is the nation who should decide during the next presidential election.
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Belsat.eu
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