Ukraine is the
only partner with which NATO will hold a separate meeting at the 2016
summit in Warsaw. Political observer Raman Yakavleuski tells Belsat TV
about Ukraine’s going to the West and explains why Ukrainians are
anticipating Russia’s attack from the territory of Belarus.
Can any post-Soviet country become a member of NATO in the near future?
I would not use the word ‘near’, but such chance is
within the realm of possibility for Georgia, Ukraine and, perhaps,
Moldova. It is the aggressive policy of Puting that is pushing Ukraine
to NATO. The number of NATO – and it’s no secret – is growing in
Ukraine.
What was the reason for Ukraine’s and Georgia’s starting to actively cooperate with NATO in the 90s?
In the both countries, there is a change of those in
power. There is a general belief that the path to Europe lies through
NATO as a defense alliance as well. As a defense alliance, and not
aggressive. When Putin says that one of the motives for the annexation
of Crimea was a threat of NATO, he lies.
At the present day, when we see the EU facing the
crisis – in the first place, I mean the recent referendum in the UK –
many people are expecting much of NATO and of the Warsaw summit in
particular.
This is a landmark event at which all the
participants should strengthen their consolidation. European countries
ought to think about a larger contribution to the common cause.
I am sure that NATO will be consolidating. Romania,
which has taken the initiative of creating a Black Sea Fleet, can be an
example of it. The decision on the initiative in which Ukraine, Moldova
and Georgia are also involved is to be approved in Warsaw.
And don’t you think that this project failed after Bulgaria had refused to participate?
I would not say so. I don’t think Bulgaria has the
say here. In my opinion, the creation of the Black Sea Fleet NATO is not
at all an unlikely scenario. In response to establishing ‘Putin’s line’
from Sukhumi to Kaliningrad, NATO is building up from the Baltic Sea to
the Black Sea. In fact, Putin revived NATO, Nato was sleeping. As we
remember, NATO’s response to the war in Georgia was different. The
annexation of the Crimea and the Ukrainian tragedy changed the
situation. One can say that Putin woke NATO up. On the one hand, it
causes tension. On the other hand, the Alliance’s consciousness is
rising.
What proposals will be set to Georgia,
Moldova and Ukraine, and what can they offer NATO? For example,
Poroshenko is taking part in the summit…
Georgia and Moldova are small countries, the latter
is a neutral state in accordance with its Constitution. As for Ukraine,
battleworthy armed forces are being created there, because it is the
unpreparedness of the Ukrainian army that led to their defeat in the war
against Russia. Americans are engaged in the process, as well as
British.
There is also a problem of protection of nuclear
power plants in Ukraine. I believe it will be an occasion for greater
cooperation with NATO in Ukraine.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko
At the Warsaw Summit systematic work within the
framework of NATO is to be approved; actual financing and training of
soldiers will be its basis. Georgia has already had it; despite Ossetia
and Abkhazia, Georgia has already left the Russian orbit. By now, Russia
has also lost Ukraine.
If we compare the situation in Ukraine to measles,
now the country is having rash. But Ukraine has set off on the road to
recovery.
Awakening of NATO makes Russia react; it promises to ‘take appropriate measures’. What might they result in?
They may lead to war. The possibility of war is perceived as a common thing in Russia.
As for Belarus, I cannot agree with some experts who
state that Lukashenka keeps neutrality. It is impossible to remaine
neutral at the current level of political and military union of Belarus
and Russia.
At the conference in Tallinn, I acquainted myself
with the report by general Clark [In 1997-2000 Wesley Clark headed the
Supreme Headquarters of Allied Powers Europe and was commander of NATO
forces in Kosovo]. When I asked why he was speaking about Russia and
Kaliningrad but failed to even mention Belarus, he answered that NATO
sees Belarus and Russia as a unified defense space. We are the hostages
of Putin’s policy, it is hard to talk about neutrality.
Does it mean that Belarusians might shoot Ukrainians if a war starts?
Yes, there is such a threat. At the moment the
protection of border with Ukraine is being enhanced – allegedly due to a
threat of NATO. According to Lukashenka, “Belarus will be the first to
face a NATO attack”. Whom was he going to fight against? War is always
on his mind.
Do you agree with the opinion that Russia will be waging the conflict in Donbas to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO?
Yes, that’s its goal. But there is another : Russia
may give up the two separatist enclaves to Ukraine, but only on special
terms, with retaining control over them – and Ukraine will suffer.
June 2016: Ukraine took part in the military exercise Anakonda
Talking about the Minsk agreements, I hold the
opinion that everything would be solved much quicker if the
400-kilometer border between Ukraine and Russia were closed.
Being in Kyiv, I asked why they were afraid of tanks
from the territory of Belarus. „You have 400 kilometers of the
uncontrolled border with Russia, I said. But a colonel from the Security
Council answered: „Kyiv is closer to you [Belarus].”
Briefly – what is the main aim of the summit?
According to its participants, the summit should put
Russia where it belongs. They say that enough is enough! No more Russian
jet fighters flying in five meters of the ships in the Baltic Sea, no
more threats in the Dardanelles and so on. But what will be the
response? Probably, it will be in the consolidated position. Putin will
not be able to ignore it.
Interviewed by Dzianis Dziuba/ English version in abridged form
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